And finally, let's give thanks. Iam not proud of it, but I am still addicted to reading the Sunday NewYork Times. And what a tale of woe it is. And while I know the #1 ruleof modern media - "if it bleeds, it leads," please just stop.

Betweenthe dire talk of global warming, global terrorism, and global finance,if you don't catch yourself you can't help but feel sorry for not justyou, but for all of humanity. 

It is 99% bunk. The world has NEVER offered more opportunities for a larger percentage of us tolive affluent lives, to do self-expressive, remunerative work, and tobe amazed daily by the wonders of modern technology and entertainment than it does right now.Be grateful for all that and more. 

Happy Thanksgiving to all.  May your holiday be blessed withthe rewards of hard work, of breaking bread with family and friends newand old, and with an attitude of gratitude for the bounties the futurewill most definitely hold.

Jay Turo
CEO
Growthink, Inc.
800-506-5728

At Growthink, our mission is "to serve the world's entrepreneurs."  When I share this with folks, they often come back to me with "Who are these entrepreneurs that are your mission to serve?"  Touché. 

So who is and who isn't an entrepreneur?

I like Professor Arthur O'Sullivan's definition, from "Economics: Principles in Action" the best - "An entrepreneur is a person who has possession of an new enterprise, venture or idea, and assumes significant accountability for the inherent risks and the outcome. He or she is an ambitious leader who combines land, labor, and capital to often create and market new goods or services."

Wow, this is good.  Let's list out individuals that obviously fit this description.  Then, let's dig deeper and talk about those who may not label themselves (nor may society) as entrepreneurs but by golly per Professor O'Sullivan's definition above they certainly are:

First, the "obvious" entrepreneurs:

Individuals STARTING New Companies.  New companies, startups of all shapes and forms, across all industries, all around the world.  The classic "man (or woman) with a plan" entrepreneur. 

In the U.S. alone, this represents the more than 6 million new businesses started every year, and the many, many millions more contemplated. The figure worldwide is a BIG multiple of this. 

Thank heavens for all of them - according to a famous M.I.T study new business starts account for more than 2/3 of all net new job creation.  Especially as by far the biggest economic issue facing America (and the world, for that matter) is job creation, these entrepreneurs truly hold the key to our nation's and the world's long-term prosperity more than any other group.

Individuals LEADING Small Companies.   Per that M.I.T study, the other 1/3 of net new job creation comes from the so-called "gazelles," - rapidly growing, emerging companies.  The most common statistical definition of these are the 641,000 U.S. firms with between 20 to 1,000 employees. They, along with startups, account for more than 62% of all private sector employment.

Anyone that has spent even a day at a gazelle can literally breathe the entrepreneurship in the air.  The best of them are led by deeply ambitious men and women walking the talk of American business.  The President, in his inaugural speech, described them best:

"Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things - some celebrated, but more often, men and women obscure in their labour, who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom."

Let us hope he and our Washington leaders think often of these inspirationally hard-working folks when crafting governmental policy in the months and years to come.

Now very importantly, not all small business people are entrepreneurs.  The key phrase in Professor O'Sullivan's definition when evaluating whether one is, or is not, is ambitious leader. 

All of us know small business men and women - that while certainly possessing of many wonderful attributes - for whom it would be a big stretch to describe them as "ambitious leaders." 

To best illustrate, I suggest you attend a meeting of your local chamber of commerce and hear how much of the debate is focused on problems and grievances versus vision and possibility. Sad, but true.

The "Non-obvious" Entrepreneurs

I find the startup and small business entrepreneurs worthy of great praise and respect.  In some ways, I am even MORE impressed with those that demonstrate strong, ambitious, principled entrepreneurial leadership in the contexts of bureaucracy, politics, and vexing social challenges. 

Here are a few:

Individuals that are Accountable for Change and Growth at BIG companies. Into this category falls Executives like General Motor's Interim CEO Fritz Henderson.  Now I know that GM maybe the last company that comes to mind when one thinks of entrepreneurship.  But given the beyond monumental challenges of making that elephant dance, Mr. Henderson certainly meets the criteria (whether he will make the grade only time will tell).  He is certainly an ambitious leader with very, very significant accountability for risks and outcomes - huge taxpayer subsidies, tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs, American pride, etc.  And his success will depend on his ability to lead GM to "combine labor, and capital to create and market new goods and services."  Yes, if Mr. Henderson is to succeed at GM, he will only do so by walking, talking, and quacking like an entrepreneur. 

Individuals With Leadership and Change Responsibility in Organizations of All Types.  The challenges of leadership and accountability exist in ANY organization taking on meaningful and challenging objectives. 

Bono, arguably the world's best known philanthropic celebrity, is an entrepreneur on two fronts.  First, via his commitment to world-class creative output as the leader of the mega-rock band U2.  And he is an entrepreneur, via his unique effectiveness as an activist and spokesperson and doer of big projects for causes close to his heart - human rights, third world debt relief, and AIDS and African development issues. If you think it is tough to get a city business permit, try getting governments of affluent nations to work together to solve global social challenges that barely garner a back-page sentence or two in the "it bleeds, it leads media" that voters back home call news.

In this vein, entrepreneurs exist in a wide host of non-profit and governmental institutions.  Gary McDougal, former Partner at McKinsey and Company, who later in his life re-engineered the broken Illinois welfare system and made it a model nation-wide.  Certainly an entrepreneur. 

Whatever you think about his politics, while governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney's re-structuring of the state's health care system, absolutely required a "think outside the box" entrepreneurial approach.  Gail McGovern as President of the American The Red Cross, working to expand the branding of the organization beyond disaster relief, works entrepreneurially everyday to effect this transformation. 

Global Entrepreneurs.  Now more than ever ambitious individuals worldwide strive to not just be entrepreneurs per the American way, but to take the best of what we do and how we think and add to it and candidly, then to crush us.  And I say more power to them.

Because entrepreneurship as its essence is about creation, and the success of one entrepreneur ANYWHERE results in a better life for everyone EVERYWHERE.

Two pieces of startling news to consider when thinking about how money is really made in our brand-driven 21st century economy:

1. James Cameron's 3-D beyond blockbuster "Avatar" - reported by the New York Times' Michael Cieply to have a total budget - production and marketing - in excess of $500 million!

Director Cameron, of Titanic, is blowing away ALL movie cost records here. To give a feel of the size of the bet that Cameron, Fox, and private equity partners Dune Entertainment and Ingenious  Media, are taking on the film, Avatar may have to become one of the top-twenty grossing movies of ALL time just to break-even!

2. Ms. Kim Kardashian, kindly described by Wikipedia as "an American celebutante, socialite, model, actress, businesswoman, and television personality" is the 8th most followed person on Twitter. She trails only Ashton Kutcher, Britney Spears, Ellen Degeneres, Oprah Winfrey, and oh yes, the President of the United States.

This is relevant only because, whatever you think about the quality/lines of work and political leanings of others on the list, at least they have actually DONE SOMETHING to become famous.

Ms. Kardashian, for all of her obvious charms, is that particular modern phenomenon of seemingly being famous because she is, well, famous.

So You Say - So What?

Well, as any regular followers of mine can attest, at the core of my belief system and the Growthink investment strategy is the The Black Swan.

Popularized by the great Lebanese thinker and writer Nicholas Taleb in his New York Times bestseller of the same name, the idea of the black swan comes from the Enlightenment in Europe to describe a logical fallacy. In the 17th century, Europeans assumed that 'All swans must be white," because they had never seen a Black Swan. In the 18th Century, black swans were discovered in Australia. 

The logicians of the time - most prominently John Stuart Mill- associated the term "Black Swan" to the concept that a "previously perceived impossibility may actually come to pass."

Taleb describes it best:

"What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable."

Taleb continues, "I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives."

1) Everybody loves to place on a pedestal (and I put myself in this category for sure) the "pure" paths to entrepreneurial riches.  It goes like this: Have a great idea, start a company, have venture capitalists back you, build the business with blood, sweat, tears, and brilliance, go IPO, be featured on the cover of Fortune, and everyone lives happily  ever after.

It is what getting rich in America SHOULD be about. But the statistics tell a far different story. 

Think about the size of Avatar's reach - a $300 million production budget? $200 million for marketing? There probably aren't 10 technology startups in the whole world with these kinds of numbers behind them.

And the nice thing about a movie versus a startup is that you can usually find out in real-time if you have something. Don't you think the VC's with their full portfolios of "waking dead" startups would like to find out as Fox will with Avatar, in like 2 weeks, if they have something?

2) "Vanilla" investment in business models, in corporations, LLCs and the like, are almost passing into the realm of quaintness. I come back to my good friend Rafe Furst and his brilliant idea of the personal investment contract.

Investing in any one of Ms. Kardashian's various companies (perfume, clothing, DVD projects) is highly risky and on the surface, not all that attractive. But being able to invest in the Kim Khardasian personality brand  itself - with her top 1,000 website and 2.8 million Twitter followers (put this in perspective - Jim Kramer's Mad  Money gets about 300,000 viewers/day) - is a sure-fire moneymaker.

3) Bet on the Unexpected. Check your ego firmly at the door when evaluating business models and investment strategies. Accept that you (and everyone) for that matter KNOWS NOTHING about what the future will hold other than the fact that we don't know what the future will hold.

That is philosophy - here is money-making: The big, big outlier events - the 1,000 to 1 shots and beyond - are always, always, always, UNDER-PRICED in the marketplace. 

Bet on them. 

I look forward to your attendance and feedback.

Jay Turo
CEO
Growthink, Inc.