Kirill Makharinsky & How To Predict A Startup's Success


Several months ago, I came across YouNoodle, a website which offers tools and a platform to help startup companies succeed. What I was initially drawn to was their Startup Predictor tool. The idea of a tool that could help predict the success, or lack thereof, of a new company really intrigued me.

So, I contacted Kirill Makharinsky, one of YouNoodle's co-founders, to learn more. Kirill was gracious enough to do the interview and provided tons of valuable information.

I started by asking Kirill about the Startup Predictor, and specifically about what are the key indicators that a new business will be successful.

Kirill started by explaining that they created the startup predictor after looking at rich data on approximately 3,000 companies. From this data, they determined patterns between initial conditions (particularly in terms of the team and what their intentions were) and the end result.

The results found really strong indicators that the following three factors are key indicators of a venture's future success:

1. The quality of the team in terms their experience and accomplishments, and how well the team members know each other.

2. The amount of commitment the team has in terms of their opportunity cost - specifically how much they are giving up to be in the venture (e.g., leaving a steady, high-paying job) and how much skin they have in the game (e.g., how much of their personal funds have they committed).

3. Having advisors. YouNoodle found that having the right advisors, even if they provide minimal amounts of time contributing to the business, strongly impact the future success of the business.

Kirill went on to discuss fundraising. He explained how allowing two advisors to take part in forming and modifying YouNoodle's business idea helped secure them as angel investors. He also gave a great case regarding why you should contact investors BEFORE you have a concrete business idea when raising funding.

Kirill also discussed why the quality of your business idea is over-rated, and provided a great answer to my question regarding the top 5 things entrepreneurs really need to know in order to be successful.

To listen to excerpts of this interview click the blue triangle on the player below.

To listen to the full interview and/or read the transcript, click here:

To visit YouNoodle, click here.

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Yaw Frimpong says

It is quite difficult to believe that a predictor can tell the viability of a startup based information derived from on three major factors with surity. I think the obvious indicators (such as the three mentioned) may be there, but there are several dozens of other factors that can make a startup succeed of fail. Example, geographic, the politics at the time (government policies), legal, social and other unforseen circumstances that can swing either to sucess or failure. YouNoodle indicators are quite micro wich may be influenced by so many macro factors. I think they should also consider the macro side too. It could also be that they consider many things than they can actually mention in public. But what interests me most is the fact that, young minds have come together and trying to do something new. They can finetune their ideas and I thing with determination and commitment, they can probably become another Google.
Posted at 6:05 am
Angela Carter says

I was totally amazed at this. I took the test and I was expecting it to say that I wouldn't make it. It didn't, it actually said that I would be successful in 2011. That is very encouraging for me because I have spent countless hours working on my website to make it appealing to the public. I'm not sure what the YouNoodle Team Score is though, but I hit 111 out of 1000. I guess that is good, at least it sounds good to me. I loved it!!!!
Posted at 9:51 am

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