With the Dow Jones up more than 35% from its early March lows of 6,440, the investing mood has undergone a 180 degree turn for the better. How does this rebound affect the angel investing returns?
Here are the negatives and the positives:
- A Zero Sum Game. On some levels, assets classes compete in a zero-sum game for investor attention. So with money moving back into the real estate market, with long-term treasury yields creeping up, and with the increasing attractiveness of traditional stock mutual funds ticking up, the risk-reward profile of private equity (of which, of course angel investing is a class) are relatively less attractive.
- The Bad Behaving VC Older Brother. Venture capital performance over the past 10 years has been shockingly bad, with some estimates being that the entire asset class has had ZERO return since 2000. And so many assume that as venture capital returns goes, so go angel investing returns. While the actual return statistics actually show the opposite (Data compiled by the Kaufman Foundation, by Ibbotson Associates, and by The Economist, show a 25%+ 10-year average angel investing return performance), perception is too often reality and is sometimes self-fulfilling.
- Venture Capital Returns ARE Improving with Improving Public Markets. Having said the above, return expectations for venture capital are looking up. Why? Because the IPO market is in an early boom period with the big recent market move.
- America is Returning to its Natural State: Deal making. One of the worst aspects of the September–March market “darkness” was the unprecedented crisis of business and financial confidence it precipitated. The mood in America – the land of Vanderbilt and Rockefeller and Edison and Watson and Walton and Gates and Jobs and Brin and Page – felt like, I am very sorry to report, France. The end-of-the-worlders were in their full bloom, and for once, the facts on the ground seemed to agree with them.
But we are getting our groove back. Consumer and business confidence have skyrocketed since March. Bank lending is up. Business capital expenditures are increasing. The real estate market, in most parts of the country, has at least stabilized (and in many places, greatly rebounded). Jobless claims are down. Most importantly, corporate profit forecasts are up.
All of this drives deal-making. It drives big companies to buy small companies to gain access to their people and their technology. It drives venture capitalists to agree to bridge financings. It drives entrepreneurs to get back to pushing the envelope with their growth plans. And all of this positive, forward-looking acting and thinking drives angel investing returns. Entrepreneurs grow their businesses faster, they exit faster, and investors turn their money faster and at great multiples.
All these factors have turned 180 degrees since March. And for those that love America and its entrepreneurial spirit, not a moment too soon.