So much of the challenge that both entrepreneurs and investors face in earning return on time and capital is driven by the low growth rate of the economy as a whole.
U.S. GNP growth, after averaging 3.6% annually for the period 1982-1999, has since 2000 slowed to a mere 1.8%.
Not coincidentally, in that same period stock market returns have declined dramatically.
From averaging over a 17% annual return rate in the '80s and '90s, most of the major indices have painfully dwelled in negative return territory since.
And to pile on the misery, with budget deficits exploding from 58% of GNP in 2002 to over 100% today, all of the "free" money poured into the system over the past decade has not had any kind of meaningful stimulative effect.
But it is going to be okay.
Why? Well, because as business people and as investors we do not work in the "macro", but rather in the far more confined - and controllable - dimensions of our particular “micro.”
And here, we can escape from the “tyranny of the average.”
How? Well by simply exhibiting that most blessed of American freedoms – individual action.
Here are actions that smart entrepreneurs and investors can take today to “break out” and attain well above average results and returns:
Think and Act Globally. The developing world continues to maintain rates of growth and virgin and nascent market opportunities probably never again to be seen again nearer to home.
How about China, even with its recent slow-down, still averaging well over 8% growth?
Or India, at 6%?
Not your cup of tea? Well how about Mexico, Brazil and South Korea all growing faster than 4%?
And don’t tell me that you can’t compete there - via technology these markets are more accessible to small and medium-sized US businesses and investors than ever.
Think Sector. The overall economy may be flat, but there are sectors within it that are booming.
Like software, growing close to 6% annually.
Or how about the entertainment industry, growing at 5.5%?
Even seemingly mature industries, like transportation & food services, are growing at close to 5%.
Think Inefficiency. Remember that to make a small fortune - and a big difference - we do not need to solve the challenges and difficulties of the overall economy.
No, we just need to find those little market and competitive inefficiencies, those niche needs and wants, those investment strategies born and won far from Wall Street.
Now, when tens of thousands us follow our particular rainbows toward our particular pots of gold the byproduct of all of this thoughtful, opportunistic, and individual action…
…is that yes collectively we all do win.
The greatness of Napoleon, Caesar or Washington is only moonlight by the sun of Lincoln. His example is universal and will last thousands of years…He was bigger than his country - bigger than all the Presidents together…and as a great character he will live as long as the world lives.”
- Leo Tolstoy, The World, New York, 1909
In honor of President’s Day, I went and saw Steven Spielberg's great movie “Lincoln” this past weekend.
As it has for many, the movie exceeded my very high expectations for it.
The film's core narrative - President Lincoln's efforts to get the 13th amendment abolishing slavery through Congress before the end of the Civil war - offered a treasure trove of leadership wisdoms applicable to our modern day.
The movie paints a basic leadership dilemma in stark relief, namely what is the proper balance between morality and expediency?
Between "being right" and being effective, and to what degree do moral ends justify messy means?
Lincoln, through the leadership role into which he was uniquely thrust, probably grappled and suffered more publicly with this dilemma than any person in history.
Beset on all sides by the bitterest of adversaries - the incorrigible racists and States’ Rights advocates of the Southern and Border States on the one hand and the moral absolutists (combined with desire for revenge) of the Radical Republican North on the other - no matter what decision Lincoln made or action he took there would be a large, powerful, and vocal group vociferously opposed to it.
Adding monumentally and tragically to Lincoln's challenge was that so much of his power and decision making revolved around those most awful of choices - to send tens of thousands of young men into battle from which the almost certain outcome for very many of them would be death.
For anyone, the awesome responsibility of this kind of leadership is beyond overwhelming.
For a great soul like that of Lincoln's, it was tragic beyond our ability to possibly relate.
But it was also triumphant, and for any of us that strive to do great and moral things with our lives, there is no better role model.
First, Lincoln did not make his enemies "wrong."
Rather, he found that delicate and transcendental space whereby he was strong in decisions to prosecute that bloodiest of American wars harshly and vigorously, but while so doing found space in his heart and in his leadership directives to not deny the humanity nor the deserving of forgiveness of his enemies.
Secondly, he did not lead from "up on high," but rather with great vigor and charm appealed to the “better angels” of his adversaries to see things a bit different - more nobly and more charitably.
And finally, Lincoln recognized that even in the midst of a horrible war, that laughter is as much a part of living as are tears.
And thus, so often when a stern reprimand or harsh words would be the reaction of a lesser leader, Lincoln chose humor to make his point.
This is maybe Lincoln’s greatest lesson for modern leaders.
To stand and to work for great things, yes…
To forgive your adversaries, yes…
But, to do so not with a heaviness of heart or obligation of purpose but with a gentle and even mischievous lightness of being that makes the journey its own reward.
And when done with the dexterity and openhearted wisdom of an Abraham Lincoln, things not thought possible even to dream about come to pass.
Happy President’s Day.
Last week, my column received quite a reaction as I pointed out how much of a disaster the public equity markets have been these past 14 years.
I shared some key statistics, especially that while from August 1982 to September 1999, the Dow Jones industrial average rose from 777 to 11,078, in comparison since 1999 it has moved only from 11,078 to 13,986 (approximately 25%).
Given that inflation since then has reduced purchasing power by over 37%, the net return for the period has been significantly negative.
To this, a lot of folks came back with basically two questions / comments:
1. Why has this happened?
2. What should we do about it?
Well, first of all with overall GNP growth rate being cut in half, from averaging 3.6% annually from 1982 to 2000 to 1.8% from 2000 - 2013, there is simply less money to go around.
Then, the returns that are to be had…well they have been mostly eaten up by the huge big bank infrastructures built up as trading volumes have increased over twenty-fold since the 1980s.
Sadly, slow overall GNP growth remains our most likely macroeconomic reality, and does anyone really see Wall Street slimming down any time soon?
So what to do about it?
Well, I suggest three prescriptions:
1. Give up on the public markets.
2. Find market inefficiencies.
3. Do it Right.
“Doing it right” should of course be all of our favorite, so on a webinar I will be hosting later this week I will share what I have discovered as to why today’s smart investors avoid the public markets and where, why, and how they invest now, including:
• How many of them no longer invest in “companies,” but rather only in projects
• How they are and how they are NOT planning to utilize the new laws regarding crowdfunding
• How they are utilizing “cross-border” and “in-kind” transactions to shelter returns from Obama era tax increases
• How they limit risk through "Black Swan" portfolio theory and modeling
The muted reaction to the major U.S. indices approaching all-times highs this past week felt a bit off for those that remember a time when folks that made their living recommending stocks were held in an almost mystical regard.
Whether they be Wall Street investment analysts, venture capitalists, or even plain old stockbrokers, the bull markets of the 80s and 90s raised all boats and reputations.
Take a look at the average annual returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1982 to 1989:
And in the 90’s, the good times continued to roll - with the Dow skyrocketing from 2800 at the start of 1990 to over 11,000 by September 1999.
Now THAT was a bull market.
Since then, not so much.
Think about it, on an inflation-adjusted basis the return of all major US stock indices over the past fourteen years (1999 – 2013) has actually been negative.
And it gets worse.
Historically low interest and inflation rates - combined with massive and seemingly permanent federal budget deficits - have given the bond and money markets an even less appealing combination of low return and systemic risk.
And to top it all off, how about governmental policy and tone that if not outright hostile to the plight of the equity investor, is at its best supremely indifferent to it?
Yes, it is enough to cause despair in those that still believe that well-functioning equity markets are at the heart of a vibrant and growing economy.
But all is not lost.
You see, in the mist of all this malaise over the last 10-15 years, some investors have been making money.
Who Are They?
Now who these folks are and how they invest is something that I have dedicated a large part of my professional life to understanding and replicating.
And starting this Thursday, I am going to share what I have discovered.
This weekend I had the very good fortune to attend Ryan Deis and Perry Belcher's Traffic and Conversion Summit in downtown San Francisco.
Headlined by speakers including Guy Kawasaki and William Shatner, it was an awesome gathering of 2,000+ of the best, brightest, and most accomplished from the worlds of online marketing and sales.
“Aha” moments were aplenty for all who made the effort to attend. Here were a few of mine:
These are the Worst AND the Best of Times for New Client Acquisition.
To large part because of gatherings like this - where the best SEO, SEM / PPC, landing page, copy-writing, and e-mail marketing strategies, tactics, and techniques are shared and then used (and in volume) by creative and aggressive marketers worldwide - it is more challenging than ever to attract new customers online.
Today’s online buyers have developed a killer combination of hardened skepticism AND sky high expectations as to pricing, product and service features and benefits, and to performance guarantees.
Now for the ambitious online seller this represents not just a great challenge, but an incredible opportunity as well.
You see, while these expectations have driven up customer acquisition costs, they have also driven the cost of a competitor acquiring that customer away from you even higher.
Now, this is where most companies who sell online get off track.
The very nature of the web - with its seductive ease of marketing to prospective customers worldwide - often causes the very dangerous myopia of neglecting those so good and honorable folks that are your customers now.
It is a bit funny that this was my big "aha" moment from a conference gathering of the some of the world’s biggest, baddest, and most aggressive online marketers.
And this led to my second aha.
The truth is already out there.
In this brave new world of ours where tens of hundreds of thousands of online businesses worldwide put their best stuff online for all the world to see…
…that imitation is not just the highest form of flattery, but it is great business strategy as well.
Now yes, what to do with all of this stuff can often feel overwhelming.
And this is where events like the Traffic and Conversion Summit are so valuable.
Ryan and Perry and their merry band curate and interpret this global treasure trove of strategies, techniques, and tactics for you.
AND they give you a framework for how to do so yourself.
And finally, the energy one draws from a gathering of 2,000+ of decidedly private sector, decidedly ambitious Internet entrepreneurs and executives…
...animates in one the energy and inspiration to take all of this knowledge and translate it into that most precious of all business assets.
I usually hesitate to analogize from the world of sports that of business.
In contrary to many motivational videos, these are two very different realms of human endeavor and there is not a clear line between the attributes and mindsets that drive success in one as compared to the other.
This past week, however, I was moved by the stories and coverage of Baltimore Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis’ retirement after 17 seasons of professional football, and those of Alabama head football coach Nick Saban winning his third BCS national championship in four years.
Watching the various retrospectives and tributes to Lewis, the overriding takeaway was how his "always on” persona inspires those around him with feelings of action, of possibility, and of strong positive intent.
This kind of energy and presence is indispensable in very many aspects of business, but none so obviously more so than in sales and presentation.
Especially in this technologically distracted world of ours, the ability to consistently project high positive emotion is a key success factor and competitive advantage.
Now, a lucky few of us are blessed with a naturally "high motor" that can go on and on without a lot of maintenance.
But the vast majority of us have to work at it.
To eat, sleep, and exercise right.
And to feed one's mind and spirit with equally nutritional fare.
Now, when it comes working at it, Nick Saban is as great a role model as he is a legendary football coach.
While for some it was a bit off-putting to hear - just minutes after his team won the championship - - the notoriously "always on-message" coach already start talking about next season, for me it was refreshing.
Because in Nick Sabin’s world it is the work itself - as opposed to any glory or accolades or money that might come from it - that is the real reward.
And that as this work and its example catalyzes the success and growth of others, it is the satisfaction of so doing that is far sweeter and more gratifying than any personal triumph or celebration could ever be.
Ray Lewis. Nick Sabin.
Strong role models not because of their far greater number of wins than losses but because, in the words of Lewis himself, wins come and go but it is effort that is eternal.
And this effort, when taken to its methodical extreme, results in a life and career like that of Nick Saban's.
Which, of course, leads to triumphs and transformations and joys for millions to experience.
Just ask any Alabama football fan if you have any doubt about that.
I had the great good fortune this past weekend to co-host Growthink's third and final Business Blueprint Live event of the year.
This is a conference where entrepreneurs and business owners gather for three days and nights to dream, plan, and network as to how to best grow the revenues, increase the profits and better fulfill the missions of their businesses.
What is really neat is that because of its longer group and in-person format, there is time and space to really listen and, correspondingly, to be heard and to share best business practices, ideas, and inspirations for the New Year.
Golly - what a weekend!
The attendees that ventured from near and far and from the comforts of their homes and regular routines took a chance.
The chance that by "mixing it up a bit," that breakthroughs would follow.
And they did.
From a medical device entrepreneur having that flash of insight as to how to best position his business for a strategic sale, to the software entrepreneur reflecting on how best to integrate a traditional marketing channel (radio) with a burgeoning one (texting), new and powerful business ideas and tactics were hatched and committed to.
And I was reminded of an old wisdom that I forget way too often.
It goes like this: when there is something “nutritious” in my life and business that I am resisting, it is that thing that above all else I need and should be doing.
It could be getting up early and doing that workout.
Or not having that second glass of wine.
Or sending those holiday cards.
Or taking that vacation.
Or, in business, making that call, writing that plan, structuring that partnership.
Going to that meeting, that conference.
And when you do, hold nothing back.
Don’t let any nagging doubts about whether this strategy, this decision, this job is the right one.
Just dive in.
Wasn't this so much at the essence of Steve Jobs' genius? This full commitment to do with fierce excellence whatever it was that he was working on at that particular time?
I saw and felt this full engagement this weekend.
Those there were fully there.
And from this full engagement, millions of dollars of business and conceptual breakthroughs and lovely relationships naturally flowed.
And when I reflect on these amazing outcomes, and then when I think back to the resistance I felt of not wanting to organize, not wanting to go to the event…
Well, it hits home that so important wisdom that when I really don't want to do something that I know in my heart that I should…
…well that is the exact thing that I must do.
And then let the magic happen.
Take this short quiz to find out:
Are your revenues growing month after month without fail?
Are your profits rising, and allowing you to pay yourself enough money to spend freely on the things you want?
Do you have plenty of customers, with no need to get more?
Do your employees care as much about the success of your organization as you do?
Do you have enough cash flow to radically grow your company?
Would your business thrive if you took the next month off?
Are other companies regularly approaching you to buy your company?
... If you answered NO to one or more of these questions, then your business is NOT giving you the results you want or deserve.
And unfortunately, you’re not alone.
In fact, millions of other entrepreneurs and business owners are struggling.
As you may know, Inc. Magazine found that 80% of businesses fail within the first 5 years, and Dun & Bradstreet research showed that 91% of businesses fail within 10 years.
And according to the United States Census, only 3.9% of businesses make it to $1 million in sales, and only 0.6% of businesses make it to $5 million. And with the slow-down in the economy since 2008, many businesses have been struggling...
with no growth and declining profits.
That’s just depressing. But there IS a solution...
...and I am so committed to helping you find it that I am offering free copies of Dave Lavinsky's new book so you too can discover what it is.
To learn more, click here: http://startattheendbook.com/free-offer
If you haven’t yet registered for my Wednesday webinar, this is your last chance.
Webinar: “How to Make 2013 Your Best Business Year Ever!”
Date: Wednesday, November 14th
Time: 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST
Registration Link: https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/459943082
The fact is this: successful people figure out what they need to do BEFORE they do it.
For example, a winning football coach always comes up with a game plan BEFORE the game. Then he’ll go over the plan with his team and practice BEFORE the game. So when the game starts, the team is ready and able to execute on the plan.
The same is true in your business. And if you want 2013 to be your best business year ever, you need to start planning NOW (2013 is only 49 days away).
That’s why I’m hosting a complimentary webinar on Wednesday, November 14th at 8pm Eastern / 5 pm Pacific.
The webinar is called “How to Make 2013 Your Best Business Year Ever!”
On the webinar you will learn:
• How to significantly increase your business’s 2013 sales and profits
• The precise way to figure out the best 2013 opportunities for your business to pursue
• How to set attainable 2013 goals that lead to long-term success
• My #1 tactic for ensuring sustained success in 2013 and beyond
• And much, much more!
You can expect to hear a positive, motivating message loaded with actionable intelligence to make 2013 the best year of your business life.
Probably the worst way for an entrepreneur to begin his or her day is to read the newspaper.
Or watch the news.
Or, for that matter, to surf the net or even check in on the latest and greatest on Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, et al.
It is not to say that keeping up with events is necessarily a bad thing, and of course for many types of businesses and professions, it is part of the job description to do so.
But for the busy and ambitious entrepreneur, doing so first thing in the morning at best is highly distracting, and at its worst misdirects one's mind and energy in the absolute wrong direction.
Well, unfortunately the overwhelming majority for what passes as “news” these days is a downbeat recital of the things that either have, are, or are about to go bad the world over.
War. Economic crisis. National disasters. Scandal.
All usually presented in that oh-so depressing of "yes this is bad, but just wait because it's only going to get worse" tone.
Not the best “stimulus” with which to start one’s day to get out and conquer the world, now is it?
Yes we should be informed.
But really, it is not the “informed” that change the world for the better.
Rather, it is the men and women of action, purpose, and zest that do.
And these energized and effective souls don’t start their day with the “news.”
Rather, they feed their spirit, minds, and bodies wholesome fare.
They meditate. They read inspirational literature. They exercise vigorously.
They set their day's goals and get right after the most important ones first thing.
They recognize that the first hour is the rudder of the day and so they tack their daily ship in the best direction right from the day’s get go.
And once they are good and going…
…well, then they take a peek at a few tweets, they accept a few friends requests, and they indulge themselves in a little of the “news.”
But not too much.
This blog post is a reprint of an article written by Jay Turo in this month’s Vistaprint Small Business Blog.