Look to the right for a fantastic chart that tracks investment returns for various asset classes over the past 10 and 20 years.
A few points immediately jump off the page:
So that is past. What will the next 10 years hold? Here are three predictions:
My answer - yes but. Yes - because the 2 key factors that drive angel investing outperformance remain the same. One, returns have to be very high as compensation for illiquidity - most angel investments are in private-held, small companies years away from a sale or an IPO. And two, returns are high as compensation for the EXTREME variance of the asset class.
Now for the but. While the asset class returned an average of 30%+, it was attained via the sum of a very, very few winners (aka Google), and lots and lots of losers.
Quite simply, a few investors made a killing, and a giant many got killed.
But here is where it gets interesting. The one thing that has and will continue to drive angel investing returns - namely technology advancements - now allows investors, for the first time, access to smoothed-out returns (i.e. higher likelhood of hitting the 30% average versus the extreme highs and lows).
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It's really easy to make fun of big businesses. With all their bureaucracy, they tend to move slowly. And they tend to be difficult to work with.
But there's one thing that big businesses typically do much better than smaller companies. And that is conducting employee performance reviews.
In fact, many smaller businesses focus so much on solving day to day crises, that conducting employee reviews falls by the wayside.
Which leads to problems. Lots of problems.
Companies that succeed have strategic plans.
And, when you conduct periodic employee performance reviews, you ensure that your employees have objectives that are congruent with your company's strategic plan.
So rather than employees focusing on tasks that they think are right, you ensure that they accomplish the tasks that really allow your company to grow and profit.
Without performance reviews, you get lots of problems. Management gets frustrated because employees are not achieving key objectives. And employees get frustrated because they don't know if they're doing a good job or not.
Interestingly, when I recently interviewed Mike Carden, co-founder of performance management review company Sonar6, he told me that most employees really like performance reviews, even when they are underperforming.
He said, "It's sort of like playing golf. Even if you don't play great, you want to know your score at the end."
Carden gave me some other great tips on conducting performance reviews to ensure that you get the most out of your employees and your company achieves its objectives.
Among other things, Carden mentioned that reviews should typically be done monthly and should take no more than 20-30 minutes per employee.
By getting into the habit of conducting monthly performance reviews, you ensure that your employees remain focused on the RIGHT objectives and that you reward them and/or improve their performance more quickly.
To hear a short clip of the interview, click the blue triangle on the player below:
Growthink University members can download the full interview here: http://www.growthinkuniversity.com/members/384.cfm
Most of us are familiar with Ivan Pavlov and his famous Pavlov dog experiments.
To refresh you, Pavlov found that when dogs constantly heard a bell when they were fed, that subsequently, the mere sound of a bell would cause them to salivate in anticipation of their next meal (even if that bell was not accompanied by food).
Interestingly, when I recently interviewed productivity expert Laura Stack, she compared checking email to a Pavlovian response. Basically, applications like Microsoft Outlook with features like a bell sounding with every new email, or an envelope in the system tray, have conditioned people to check email far too often.
In fact, many entrepreneurs and business managers check email 10 times a day or more. Some check it constantly.
But what happens when you are checking email too often? Well, according to Stack, you are failing to complete the key tasks and projects that must be done in order to grow your business.
Successful entrepreneurs and business managers have the insight to determine the highest value uses of their time. And then they have the self-discipline to ensure that each and every day, they devote time to these uses. It is then, and only then, that entrepreneurs can grow their businesses. If not, every day they might accomplish 20 tasks, but these tasks won't help their businesses grow.
During the interview, I peppered Ms. Stack with a series of productivity questions, and received tons of great answers in return. My favorite was her six-step outline for entrepreneurs to become more productive as follows:
1. Determine what you are supposed to be working on (what has the highest value-add to your organization)?
2. Make room for those activities on your schedule (and do whatever you have to do to get it done, including scheduling meeting with yourself or working offsite)
3. Focus on achieving those things that need to be done. Don't let yourself get distracted.
4. Get organized.
5. Be disciplined. Do the things you need to do. Don't waste time on rituals like checking email, getting beverages, and socializing with co-workers in the morning.
6. Get back the attitude you had when you first started your company. By focusing on the high value-add objectives and freeing up your time from monotonous and low value-add activities, you will feel a renewed energy and excitement for your business.
To hear a clip of the interview, click the blue triangle on the player below.
Growthink University members can listen to and/or download the full interview here: http://www.growthinkuniversity.com/members/383.cfm
Barring a massive rally between now and the end of the year, the "00's" will be the worst decade in the history of the stock market.
As reported in the Wall Street Journal today, since the end of 1999 stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange have lost an average of 0.5% per year.
Let's put this in historical perspective.
The 1990's were the best calendar decade in history for stocks, with an average investment return of 17.6% per year.
Even in the 1930's - the era of the Great Depression and usually considered the gold standard (pardon the pun) for bad markets, investors did better - with stocks "only" losing 0.2% per year.
And, as the Journal goes on, the news is even worst when we take into account inflation. Since 1999, on a inflation-adjusted basis, the S & P 500 has lost an average of 3.3% per year.
How bad is this? Given that the 1930's was a period of deflation, stock actually gained, in real terms, 1.8% per year during that decade. Even the 1970's - a period of both a bear market AND inflation, did better than this last decade, with stocks only losing 1.4% after inflation.
So before moving to the "what does this mean" and "what do we do now" discussion, let's take a moment of pause to reflect on just how tough an investing decade this has been
Very, very tough. Trillions lost. Retirement plans delayed. Heartache and heartbreak.
Perhaps most gallingly, while most suffered, there were those that did very well while really having no business doing so. Hedge fund managers. Derivatives traders. Bank executives.
I think we can all agree on a hope for the new decade - that the financial rewards in the next 10 years go more to the creators of value and less to the speculators on value.
Here are three more:
1. May Venture Capital Rise Again. Venture capital firms, for the first time in their history, lost money over a decade-long period.
Given the amazing and world-changing advances in human productivity and connectivity over the last 10 years, may the venture capital industry, and correspondingly the world of emerging technology - re-find its return footing.
2. May, on December 31, 2019, The NASDAQ and Dow be trading at, respectively, above 10,000 and above 30,000. Even getting to these levels will mean a return of less than 5% annually from 1999 to 2019.
This falls into the category of the equity markets being "due" for a big returns decade. A simple, but defensible premise.
3. May The Nation's Entrepreneurs Lead The Way. Never has there been more productive, focused, mature, and cause-driven entrepreneurs alive in the world than there are today.
Take a look at the below list of the top performing stocks of the past 10 year (1999-2008):
Symbol Company 10 Yr. Cum. Return
GMCR..............Green Mountain Coffee Roasters................7,895.4%
As Tim Hanson points out, these companies have three qualities in common - they were mostly ignored and obscure when they began their meteoric rise, and they were SMALL.
And you know what? Come 2019 there will be TEN DIFFERENT obscure and small companies that will make this list.
Noone knows who these companies will be. But to attain alpha, you MUST find them.
One thing is for sure - a few investors WILL find them.
The more interesting question of course is - will you be one of them?
I look forward to your attendance and feedback.
Looking for venture capital? Or looking for great insights to grow your business?
Well, we've scoured a year's worth of great blog posts from hundreds of venture capitalists and industry experts, and are pleased to present you with our 50 favorite posts of 2009.
Some great information is included in these posts, and savvy entrepreneurs and investors will heed this advice.
And we'd love to hear your comments...what posts did we miss?
1. Ed Sim (Dawntreader Ventures)
This video reveals a common mistake entrepreneurs make when shopping for capital.
This video will help you raise capital more confidently and quickly.
It's a simple formula, and may sound counter-intuitive, but it's very effective.
And if you enjoyed that video, you may be interested in my new online training course, Secrets to Raising Capital, where I give you step-by-step instructions on exactly how to raise 40 different types of capital to grow your business.