Written by Jay Turo on Monday, November 4, 2013
It is hard not to laugh when I hear tired old refrains like "Nobody reads business plans anymore" or "In the world of lean startups, there is no time for strategic planning."
Why do otherwise intelligent and well-meaning businesspeople say and think things like this?
Well, for starters as human beings we all struggle to emotionally grasp the impact of the history not made, of the things that don't happen.
You see, poor strategy does not manifest itself as much in high profile flame-outs as perhaps it did in days of yore (see Pets.com, eToys, etc.) as much as it does in nothing of note ever being accomplished.
As in companies that grow slowly, if at all.
And make no profits.
And are led by entrepreneurs whose talent and work ethic doesn’t translate into the kind of pay and lifestyle they seemingly deserve.
Missed opportunities, lost years, unrewarded work.
These are the real but hidden costs of poor strategy.
Now, the other big misconception around strategic plans is confusing the “form of deliverable” with the process itself.
Again, this is a case where otherwise smart and well-meaning businesspeople make an obvious, but critical error: They equate the plan with a physical document.
And when done poorly, more often than not a document that is only tangentially connected to the “real business” it supposedly represents.
Now, the good news is that the literature is filled with great best practices - tested over thousands of businesses - as to how to lead strategic planning processes that are connected to the actual marketing, sales, operations, and finances of a company.
Even better news: Inexpensive, effective, and everywhere accessible business software-as-services are connecting the dots between “big” strategy and the “small” to do’s, tactics and action items at the living, breathing heart of a business.
Software like Basecamp, Klipfolio, Crisply, Results.com, Posthaven, Chatter, Copytalk, Nudgemail, Evernote, Survey Monkey, MVPSocial, and dozens of others (especially the Growthink Dashboard).
This is where 21st Century strategy lives. How 21st Century businesses win.
Now, as for those who prefer to cling to their tired clichés, well I guess they can always reminisce about how things were back in the 20th Century.
But for those who need more than nostalgia to sustain them, there has never been a better time to get on the technologically win by doing strategy right.
Written by Dave Lavinsky on Tuesday, October 22, 2013
The biggest aspiration of most entrepreneurs and business owners today is to grow and then sell their businesses. And why shouldn't it be? Selling your business creates more multi-millionaires than any other endeavor.
The key issue however is this: are you growing your business the right way, and are you focusing on the right things? You see, when it comes time for buyers to appraise the value of your business, they might find different things to be important than you do. And the last thing you want to do is focus your time developing aspects of your business that buyers don't value. Particularly when doing so forces you to neglect the things they do.
Below are five key questions that will determine your business' value. Answer them honestly. And then work to improve your position on each.
1. How replicable is your business?
When corporations consider buying a business, they make a "build" or "buy" decision. That is, they ask whether the time and money it would take to build a similar business from scratch is greater than the cost to buy the business from you now.
As such, the more unique and less replicable your business is, the better. So think about how replicable your business is. For example, could another company easily replicate your products or services? Could they easily hire and train a team as good as yours? Would it be simple for them to build a customer base like yours?
Answer these questions honestly and focus on building a profitable AND harder-to-replicate business going forward.
2. How easy will it be to run your business after acquisition?
Why do we pay a premium for a new automobile versus a used one? Because we know the new one doesn't have any problems. It hasn't gotten into any accidents. It doesn't have an oil leak, etc.
Similarly, acquirers will pay a premium for a business that is in great "running condition." Sure, every business will have its challenges, but a business that is simple to run, like a new car, will be highly valued.
So, let me ask you this: if you sold your business today and retired, would the new owner be able to easily run your business thereafter?
- Do you have systems in place that enable your business to run consistently every day?
- Are your employees trained to handle all key issues that arise?
- Will your customers continue to buy from your company even though you're no longer a part of it?
Always think how your business will run after you're gone. And if currently it wouldn't run smoothly, take actions now so that it will.
3. How has your business performed financially?
Unless the majority of the value of your company is in unique and patented technologies, buyers will thoroughly review your financial performance.
Clearly, they want to see strong revenues and profits. And they want growing revenues and profits. If your revenues or profits are on the decline, many buyers will project that decline will continue, and thus significantly decrease the valuation of your business. Fortunately the opposite is true, so do whatever you can to have strong and growing revenues and profits.
4. How stable is your customer base?
Your customers are the lifeblood of your business. The revenues you generate from them pay the bills and ideally fund great profits.
As such, acquirers will scrutinize your customer base. And the most important question is how stable that base is. For example, do they expect 50% of your customers to leave after the acquisition? Or 25%? Or 10%? Or none?
Clearly, the more stable your customer base, the more attractive you are to an acquirer. In the ideal situation, you have signed contracts with customers so the acquirer has complete certainty they will be retained. If not, ideally your customers have gotten in the habit of buying your products or services, or have a solid preference for them, so their continued patronage is likely.
Likewise, having a diversified customer base, as opposed to just a few very large clients, helps. Because with fewer, larger customers, there's more risk that one will leave and take a large chunk of your revenues with them.
5. What are the odds of sustainable future growth?
When you combine the four questions above, much of what the acquirer is trying to answer is what your odds are for future growth.
For instance, if you have a stable customer base, your financials are strong and growing, your business is unique, and it will be easy to run your business post acquisition, then your odds for future growth are great and you will have tons of suitors.
And tons of suitors interested in buying your business means that they will bid the value up and up, so when you sell, you will get a great premium. Which is probably one of the reasons you started your business in the first place. So do this, and make it happen!
Suggested Resource: If you want to build a sellable business, watch this free presentation called "Million Dollar Exits: How to Build a Business You Can Sell For Millions of Dollars." It starts by explaining the 3 most dangerous trends facing entrepreneurs today. Click here for this must-know information.
Written by Jay Turo on Monday, October 21, 2013
Why am I an angel investor?
Well, for starters I have been very fortunate in my life to come from a family of entrepreneurs who deeply understood that the blessings of our way of life depend on our thriving free enterprise system.
So, from an early age, at the top of my respect pyramid were those that created wealth via their own hard work, creativity, and opportunistic sense of risk and reward.
Or, more simply, the entrepreneurs, the owner-operators, “the risk takers, the doers, the makers of things.”
Those brave souls that embody Picasso's famous credo of "work
being the ultimate seduction.”
From whom business is far more than simply a way to make a living.
AND as they do it, they make money.
A lot of it.
In fact, the vast majority of these smaller companies earn a far higher return on capital than their larger publicly-traded brethren.
In fact, companies on the Inc. 5000 - a list of the country’s fastest-growing privately-held companies - average annual revenue growth of over 70%
And a good number of these companies take in outside equity investment, primarily to accelerate their growth.
Some from professional investors - private equity and venture capital firms - and some from individual, “angel” investors.
And when the better among them do, I take a look. Here’s why:1. High Rate of Expected Return
. Angel investing is by far the highest expected rate of return form of investing, Research from the Kauffman Foundation Angel Returns Study
and the Nesta Angel Investing
study, compiled by Robert Wiltbank
, have demonstrated that the "...average angel investor (across the U.S. and UK) produced a gross multiple of 2.5 times their investment, in a mean time of about four years."2. Home Run Potential
. Smaller operating companies are the only form of investment that offers true "home run" potential.
Almost all great fortunes have been made via positions in small companies that became big. The list is legion, and runs from Standard Oil, DuPont, and Ford, through IBM, Hewlett-Packard, Wal-mart, Microsoft, and Oracle, to modern day supernovae like Amazon, Google, LinkedIN, Facebook, and Twitter. 3. Connectedness
. Perhaps my favorite, investing in smaller, private companies offers a connectedness, realness, and "human scale" interaction best compared to philanthropy.
It is the spiritual opposite of index, derivative, and Federal Reserve tea leave gazing that so unfortunately is what the media now considers “finance.”
Quite simply, angel investing is one of the last, pure forms of doing good while doing well…
…making a high personal expected, economic return decision while
contributing to the entrepreneurial force of the world and providing fuel for innovations of all types that make it a better place.
What is better than that?
Written by Dave Lavinsky on Thursday, October 17, 2013
No great companies have just one employee. None. Which means that in order to grow your company, you need to build a great team.
In building your team, there are two equally important but distinct parts: recruiting great employees and expertly managing them so they perform at their best.
1. Recruiting Great Employees
Recruiting great employees requires you to: 1) determine who to hire, and 2) hire the right people.
Determining Who to Hire
In determining who to hire, you need to assess both what job functions you need now, and what functions you'll need in the future. This will help you find the right people.
Consider this example: you need someone right now to manage your marketing. So you hire a marketing manager. A year from now, your company is doing well and you hire four more people as part of your marketing team.
Now here's the question that arises: is the person you initially hired for the marketing position the right person to lead your marketing team? Sometimes they are, but often they aren't. Since performing in a role yourself is a very different job than managing a team.
So, the question you need to ask yourself when you initially hire the marketing person is this: should I hire someone simply to meet my short-term marketing goals, or should I hire someone that can fill my short-term goals and who could also manage and grow my marketing department. The latter hire will typically be more qualified, and more expensive, so making such a decision is important.
Another tip when determining who to hire is to conduct a return on investment (ROI) analysis on new positions. That is, what expected return, typically in terms of increased profits, will the business generate in return for hiring each new staff member. The less funding you have in your business, the more important this analysis becomes in choosing who to hire now.
Hiring the Right People
There is an old and important saying in management, "Hire slowly and fire quickly." You hire slowly since it's critical to get the right people in your organization. And you fire quickly, since bad employees can ruin the morale and productivity of your entire team.
The process of hiring the right employees starts with sourcing them. You can source or find employees from a wide range of places, from college job boards to posting classified ads. For each open position, think about the best places to find qualified prospects.
Once you find qualified prospects, the key is to weed through them to find the top performers. While interviewing prospective employees is key, remember that someone's interviewing skills are not as important as their on-the-job performance. That is, someone can be great during interviews, but not so great on the job.
To overcome this challenge, delve into the prospect's performance in their last jobs and, as much as possible, give them tests to see how they might perform in your company. With regards to tests you give them, treat their performance on them as their best possible work. While they can refine their skills with training, prospective employees generally give it their all on such a test. So, if they score mediocre, they are not a good prospect.
2. Expertly Managing Your Team
Your job as a manager doesn't stop once you've recruited a great team. Rather, you need to expertly manage them. We see this in sports all the time; one team has incredibly talented players, but they still don't win the championship.
Key to your company's performance is motivating and managing your employees so they work collectively as a team and are highly productive.
Among the many techniques for accomplishing this, here are two of my favorites:
1. Let Your Employees Set Goals for Themselves
Employees will perform much better when they've set their own goals, rather than goals being dictated for them. So, have each employee set goals. Then review those goals with them. As needed, persuade them to modify their goals to better align with company goals. Even when you do this, they will feel personally accountable for achieving their goals.
2. Conduct Performance Reviews
If you don't meet with employees and review their performance, they won't know whether they're doing a good job or not. So, meet with your employees periodically to discuss their performance versus their goals, detail what they are doing well at, and identifying areas for improvement and your suggestions to achieve such improvement.
Your Team Allows You to Win the Game
We all face competition in our businesses. And the difference between the winners and losers is often the quality of the teams. Clearly, if your marketing manager is better than your competitors', and so is your sales team, your production team, etc., you're going to win every time. So, focus on building your dream team so you emerge victorious.
Suggested Resource: Building Your Dream Team is a comprehensive video program that takes you through the four phases of building an outstanding team, which are: 1. Building a Founding Team, 2. Determining Who to Hire, 3. Hiring Superstars, and 4. Expertly Managing Your Team. Click here to learn more.
Written By Dave Lavinsky
Written by Jay Turo on Monday, October 14, 2013
Watching the disaster of a process that is the D.C. budget drama, I found myself with a curious reaction.
And maybe even a little bit of a selfish one.
It was, by golly, how happy I am that I get to work in this so dignifying world of business and free enterprise and not have to waste my precious life energy on such nonsense.
And then feeling a bit more generous, I felt happiness for the hundreds of millions if not now billions of people worldwide that are able to do likewise.
To work in or at a business, just a plain old simple business.
A software development firm. A medical device company.
An accounting firm. A roofing company. An insurance agency.
A tanning salon. A yoga studio. A specialty retailer. A freight forwarding company.
Walmart. A donut shop.
Now don't get me wrong, government is important.
And that those that work in it often are mostly truly public servants and we should be thankful for their service.
And yes, our vexing public policy challenges require our attention and concern.
But it isn’t that important.
So much of the real action in this world of ours takes place in the micro.
In that wonderful world of business production.
The world of multi-billion dollar companies like Cisco utilizing information technology to accomplish the accounting miracle of closing their books each and every day.
The world of General Electric growing great managers and business leaders time and time again.
The world of amazing customer service at places like Zappos and how that service dedication translates to strong profits that fuel our world.
The world of that sumptuous donut fresh out of the oven.
The world where, with a click of a button on my phone, I can buy a mobile app that sends me my text messages as e-mails (but don't ask me why I want this).
The world where I order new leather seat covers for my car, from Greece, on Ebay, and at a fraction of the price of what the dealership is asking.
And oh yes, by doing so making a small dent in that nation's debt and fiscal crisis.
And it is the world of my own business’ unique processes and project tasks and how we will profit from this burgeoning new world of global service exports.
Yes, the real and meaningful action is in this amazing 21st century global world of ours of hundreds of millions of points and more of concentrated business production.
That creates for all of us, this transcendent potpourri, this never-ending buffet, of essential, helpful, frivolous, sometimes conspicuous, but so blessedly diversified consumption.
And you know what else?
History has taught that the more folks focus on getting great at what they particularly produce, no matter how great and glamorous or small and prosaic it might be.
Well, it is by so doing that all of our fiscal cliff and other challenges as if by some magical hand just seem to take care of themselves.
Written by Dave Lavinsky on Tuesday, October 8, 2013
The acquisition market continues to be very strong. In the 12 months ending August 31, 2013, $881.7 Billion was paid to acquire 9,499 US companies. This represents an 8.1% increase over the $815.9 Billion paid to acquire companies in the previous year.
Importantly, during this time, the average EBITDA multiple paid for Middle Market firms (companies valued between $1 million and $500 million) was 9.1. This means that if your company's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) were $2 million, that your company would sell for 9.1 times that or $18.2 million.
I'm telling you this important information because selling your company is the ultimate goal for most entrepreneurs, because it's how you achieve significant wealth.
Importantly, not all of the $881.7 Billion paid to buy these companies went to the founders of these companies. Some of it went to investors, employees, and others. But the entrepreneurs who founded them received by far the biggest chunk.
That's why 80%, a full 4 out of 5, of individuals with a net worth of $5 million or more (called "pentamillionaires") are entrepreneurs who started and sold their businesses.
Here are some acquisitions that have taken place in just the last few days:
- Sega purchased Atlus, a gaming company, for $141 million
- Xchanging, an outsourcing services company, acquired e-sourcing provider MarketMaker4 for $22 million
- EnerSys, an industrial battery manufacturer, agreed to acquire Purcell Systems, an electronic equipment company, for $115 million
- Intel purchased Indisys, an artificial intelligence technology for $26 million and Omek, a gesture-based interface company, for $40 million
- Google acquired mobile startup Bump for over $30 million (exact amount not disclosed)
And the list keeps going.
Now importantly, I want you to understand why each of these companies was acquired for millions of dollars. Here's why: each of them developed the right value drivers.
You see, whenever a large company considers buying a smaller company, they make a "build or buy" decision. That is, they think, "how long and how much money will it take for us to build what that company has already built." And then, they compare that answer to the price at which they could buy the company.
And when the larger company realizes that buying the smaller company is less expensive (in terms of dollars and time savings), they buy it. And as you read above, they often buy it at a huge price.
Now, what value drivers do buyers want?
I have identified 21 different value drivers they want. Such as the following:
1. Customers: the more customers you have and the more valuable your customers are, the more acquirers will pay to buy your company.
2. Intellectual Property: the more intellectual property you have, such as patents, trademarks, copyrights, and trade secrets, the more your company is worth to acquirers.
3. Team/employees: the more talented and trained your team, the higher the price the acquirer will pay for you.
So, be sure to build your company with these value drivers in mind. When you figure out which of the 21 value drivers are most important to acquirers in your sector, and focus on building them, you'll soon get to a massive payday - a big acquisition of your company.
Written by Jay Turo on Monday, October 7, 2013
The saddest lament of entrepreneurs and owners of private companies seeking to sell and exit their companies is that they want their businesses to be valued on their future potential, and not its CURRENT profitability.
Given that the typical, offered purchase multiples for smaller businesses – as in those with less than $5 million in EBITDA – can be as low as 1 or 2 times last year’s tax return profits, this is understandable.
In fact, we often see purchase offers based on multiples of MONTHLY earnings – not exactly the “happily ever after” exit dreamed of when these businesses were founded!
Yes, getting a business valued and sold based on factors other than its earnings while by no means impossible nor uncommon, is HARD.
Yet…there are literally hundreds of companies every month that sell for very high multiples of profits, for multiples of revenue, and even companies that are in a pre-revenue stage that sell every day just on the value of their technology, their people, and their work processes.
What do they?
Well, here are six things that companies that sell for high multiples do that you can and should too.
1. They Are Technology Rich. Companies rich in proprietary technology in all its forms – patents, processes, and people – are far more likely to be valued on factors other than profitability and correspondingly attain purchase prices beyond a few times current year’s earnings.
As an example, the likelihood of a medical device company being sold or taken public is twenty times greater than that for a services - or a low-to-no proprietary technology company - doing so.
2.They Have Gold at the End of their Rainbows. Businesses that sell for high multiples communicate exciting and profitable future growth.
Their managers demonstrate understanding of the big 21st century “macros” - i.e. how technology evolutions and globalization will impact positively and negatively their industry, market, customers, and competition.
Concurrently, these managers understand the micros well too, especially how their business’ human capital will adapt and grow as change happens.
All this translates into well-developed stories that if their businesses aren’t making it now, there is gold (and a lot of it!) at the end of their rainbows.
3. They Are Great Places to Work. Businesses that sell are usually characterized by that good stuff that we all seek in our professional environments.
They are culturally cohesive. If they don’t have low employee turnover, they at least have well - defined career progression paths. And their compensation policies align and pay well with desired performance.
Quite simply, they are great places to work and are reputationally strong within their industries.
4. They are Process and NOT People Dependent. Businesses that are overly dependent on charismatic owners or a few dynamic salespeople or engineers rarely sell because the majority of their value can simply walk out the door tomorrow and never come back.
Important aside: for those entrepreneurs that harbor the desire to sell but not the ambition to build a meaningfully sized, process-based organization should then focus their exit planning almost exclusively on technology and intellectual property development.
If they are unwilling / unable to do this, then they should put the idea out of their head for now and invest this energy into more meaningful pursuits.
Like my favorite - making absolutely as much money today as one possibly can.
5. They Have Good Advisors. Businesses that do everything right but have messy financial statements because of poor accounting, messy corporate records because of poor or non-existent legal counsel, and messy “future stories” because of poor exit planning and investment banking advice, simply do not sell.
Sure, they may get offers, but invariably these deals fall apart in diligence and at closing.
And as anyone that has ever been through a substantial business sale process knows, almost nothing in business is as time and energy-draining as is getting close to a business sale and not getting it done.
6. They Get Lucky. Luck remains a fundamental and often dominant factor that separates the businesses that successfully sell from those that don’t.
The best entrepreneurs and executives don’t get philosophical nor discouraged by this but rather they embrace it.
They try new things. They follow hunches. They make connections.
They start from the pre-supposition of “accepting all offers” and work backward from there.
They and their companies can be best described as “happy warriors” – modern day action heroes ready for the fight. When they get knocked down, they smile, wipe their brow, and get right back in the fray.
And you know what? Our happy warriors, living and thinking and working like this day after day channel some mystical power and draw great luck and more to themselves and their companies.
Yes, companies that sell are the good and lucky ones.
Follow the advice above and fortune just may smile on your company and those you invest in too.
Written by Dave Lavinsky on Tuesday, October 1, 2013
There are eight key things angel investors will look for when considering whether or not to fund your business. No, you don't have to satisfy all of these criteria. But the more of them you do, the better the chance they will say "yes" to your funding request.
#1: They Like You
Believe it or not, this is really important. No matter how good your venture is, if the investor doesn't like you, they generally won't fund you. So, build rapport with prospective investors and give them the respect they deserve.
#2: They Feel Good About the Venture's Genre
Even if the investors likes you and even if they think your company can be a huge success, they need to like what the venture is all about. For example, someone who hates politics will generally not fund the new political website you are launching. So, find investors who have an affinity for the type of venture you're launching/running.
#3 They Feel a Void
If an individual is an ultra-successful business person who is currently running multiple operations, they are generally not going to invest in more ventures. Since, they don't have a void; they have all the excitement in their daily life that they need. Conversely, a person who feels they might be "missing out on the action" will be more motivated to invest in you.
#4 They Feel There's Good ROI Potential
This is obviously important. Even if investors like you, the type of business, and they feel a void, they generally want to believe they will get a nice return on their investment if they fund you.
There are five sub-criteria to this, which get us to our sum of eight things angel investors want.
Does your company have a strong potential to achieve significant annual revenues? In a truly scalable business, you can multiply your sales without having to greatly increase your resources. Scalable businesses grow more rapidly and can reach an exit (whereby the investor gets their return) faster.
#4b: High Barriers to Entry
Barriers to entry are those things that make it difficult for another firm to compete against you, such as patents or proprietary technology, a unique location, strategic partnerships, and long-term customer contracts.
The stronger and/or more barriers to entry you have, the more likely you are to succeed, and the higher expected ROI the investor has.
#4c: Worthy Management Team
Angels must believe in both the founders and the key operating personnel of your company. Because even the best idea will fail if the team isn't good enough.
#4d: Your Exit Strategy
Your "exit strategy" or method in which you will "exit" your business, is generally to sell it or go public, with the former being much more common. As such, it's good to think about your exit strategy early. Who might want to buy you in the future, and why?
Since angel investors can't realize their investment until you exit, be sure to prove to them that such an exit is viable.
#4e: The Right Price
Finally, angel investors will only invest when the price is right. If you price your equity too high, angels may not have the potential to reap significant enough returns and will not invest.
We see this on the show Shark Tank all the time. The entrepreneur says, for example, that for $400,000 they will give up 10% of their company. The sharks always laugh at percentages like this and say they will need at least 40% of the company or more for that dollar amount.
While the sharks are much more sophisticated, and shark-like, than your common angel investor, you need to price your equity fairly (give them a fair equity stake for their investment) if you want them to fund your venture.
Knowing these 8 things that angel investors want will help you identify and convince the right angels to fund your business!
For my complete game plan for raising funding from angel investors, check out our Angel Funding Formula.
Written by Jay Turo on Monday, September 30, 2013
This past week, I had the good fortune to attend the thinkB2B conference at Google’s Mountain View headquarters.
At it, some of the world's best Internet thinkers and researchers presented on key trends in business-to-business (B2B) online marketing, sales, and client engagement.
My three takeaways:
1. Mobile, Mobile, Mobile. All of the presenters, from Forrester, Motista, The Marketing Leadership Council, to Google itself, drove home the point that mobile browsing, shopping and buying is growing at such a rapid rate that in a few short years it will in fact become indistinguishable from the traditional, desktop-driven Internet.
This is obviously having a dramatic impact on not just consumer markets (i.e. tweeting and texting Millennials), but on B2B markets and interactions as well.
Which leads to takeaway number two…
2. Personalization. As well demonstrated by this awesome Grainger ad, even older line industrial companies and brands selling to other old line companies now must connect their brands and messaging to the personalized needs, wants, fears, and aspirations of individual buyers.
In other words, it is no longer enough to just demonstrate business value (i.e. functional benefits and business outcomes), but personal benefits must be communicated as well.
Things like promotion, popularity, influence, and confidence.
AND do so in a way “that delights, inspires, and surprises…and makes a person want to own it, riff on it, and share with others…”
Yes, this is hard.
But when done right, the rewards can be the kind of word-of-mouth viral campaign effects that to date have only been available to consumer brands and marketing campaigns (see Old Spice, DollarShaveClub).
3. Multiple, Digital Touchpoints. From personalization of message follows multiplication of medium.
With B2B buyers porting their iPhones and Galaxies-trained “always on, at my fingertips” sensibilities to the work place, B2B sales cycles are now increasingly “multi-dimensional.”
These cycles involve not just in-person and on the telephone analog selling, but also multiple digital touchpoints and nudges - texts, tweets, LinkedIn connects, YouTube favorites, Facebook likes, and more.
These are the new rules of the B2B marketing game.
And we either learn to play by them hard and well…
…or we consign ourselves to being left behind in our mobile, so very personalized, sometimes annoying, but also so often delightful and always opportunity-filled world.
Written by Jay Turo on Monday, September 23, 2013
The word from the Fed last week that it would continue with its quantitative easing - purchasing approximately $85 billion per month in U.S treasury bond and de facto continuing to expand the country’s money supply - signaled that that the era of extremely low interest rates will continue.
Predictably, stock markets worldwide cheered along with it being seen as a very positive signal for the well-recovering US housing market.
Now, as to what it means that the Fed has, since 2008, expanded the U.S. Money Supply almost 400% - from $800 billion in 2008 to over $3.5 trillion today?
Well, it doesn’t take a Nobel Prize in Economics to reliably predict the inevitable outcome…
Now, in spite of its strong negative connotations, an inflationary economy while extremely painful for very many, also offers opportunities to profit and win.
Here are three:
Winner Number One: Debtors. This is obvious, but easy to overlook. Those owing money at set interest rates - homeowners with 30 year fixed mortgages and companies issuing bonds - will benefit enormously as the inflation train rolls in.
Let’s look at a worst but not overly improbable case - a hyperinflation period where all prices rise 10X, resulting in a $500,000 home able to be credibly listed for $5 million.
It sounds crazy, but over the years in countries where hyperinflation has hit, this has not been an uncommon occurrence.
Now let’s say that home was financed (or refinanced) with a $400,000, 30-year mortgage at a fixed rate of 3.5%.
Well, with its price increasing from $500,000 to $5 million - while the amount owed on it remains fixed - all of a sudden the house’s equity to debt ratio skyrockets from 20% to 92%!
Winner Number Two: Companies with Pricing Power. Businesses with the ability to increase prices quickly without seeing sales plummet - think luxury goods and easily adjusted staples like gasoline at the pump - will hold significant advantages over businesses constrained by “stickier” prices.
Examples of the latter include services like mobile phones contracts and gym memberships, and the classic example of restaurants not increasing prices because of the cost of printing new menus.
Winner Number Three: Private Companies for Sale. My favorite, as there is no greater form of an entrepreneurial, economic success than a sale of a business at an attractive price.
In a world of rising prices, the acquisition appetites of larger companies increase as their cost of money - as driven by their valuation multiples - decrease.
This is most evident for public companies, now trading at a rich 18x earnings (S&P 500), who are able to buy smaller, usually private companies with the relatively cheap currency of high multiple public equity.
This frothiness also drives the financing environment, where buyers (investors) and sellers (entrepreneurs, companies seeking capital) more easily strike higher risk, higher valuation deals (see Fab.com, HootSuite, and scores of others) with an ease that isn’t there in a flat or deflationary environment.
So, if you're an entrepreneur, think about accelerating and intensifying both your financing and exit planning efforts.
And for investors, remember that the worst strategy in an era of rising prices is to be standing still and sliding away in fast depreciating cash.
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